E-ISSN 2218-6050 | ISSN 2226-4485
 
2024, Vol: 14, Issue: 4
14 / 4Current Issue ArchiveAims and ScopeAbstracting & IndexingMost Accessed ArticlesMost Downloaded ArticlesMost Cited Articles
Required files to be uploaded

OVJ Manuscript Submission Form

Research Article


The usage of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for forecasting milk production in Egypt (2022-2025)

Mohamed A. Omar, Fardos A.M. Hassan, Sara. E. Shahin, Marwa El-shahat.


Abstract
Background:
Milk considered one of the most important capital goods and essential source of animal protein in the diet of Egyptian family, as well as an effective mean to improve economic condition of farmers, considering this importance in view, the policy makers need accurate and advance information regarding future supply for planning on both short and long term.
Aim:
The study aims to forecast the production of milk in Egypt during the period from 2022 to 2025 using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model using time series data of milk production (1970-2021) obtained from Central Agency for public mobilization and statistics (CAPMS).
Methods:
Augmented Dickey-Fullar Unit Root test, Partial autocorrelation function (PACF) and Autocorrelation function (ACF) of the time series sequence were used to judge the stationarity of the data. After confirming the stationarity of the data, the appropriate ARIMA model was selected based on certain statistical parameters like significant coefficients, values of adjusted R-squared, Akaike information criteria, Schwarz criterion and Standard Error of regression. After the selection of model based on the previous parameters the verification of model was employed through checking the residuals by Correlogram-Q-Statistics test.
Results:
The most fitted model to predict the future levels of milk production in Egypt was ARIMA (1, 1, and 3).
Conclusion:
Using ARIMA (1, 1, 3) model, it could be forecasted that the production of milk in Egypt would show increasing trend from 6152.606 thousand tons in 2022 to 6360.829 thousand tons in 2025.

Key words: Milk production, ARIMA, Forecasting, Egypt


 
ARTICLE TOOLS
Abstract
PDF Fulltext
HTML Fulltext
How to cite this articleHow to cite this article
Citation Tools
Related Records
 Articles by Mohamed A. Omar
Articles by Fardos A.M. Hassan
Articles by Sara. E. Shahin
Articles by Marwa El-shahat
on Google
on Google Scholar


How to Cite this Article
Pubmed Style

Omar MA, Hassan FA, Shahin SE, El-shahat M. The usage of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for forecasting milk production in Egypt (2022-2025). Open Vet J. 2024; 14((1) (Zagazig Veterinary Conference)): 256-265. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2024.v14.i1.22

Web Style

Omar MA, Hassan FA, Shahin SE, El-shahat M. The usage of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for forecasting milk production in Egypt (2022-2025). https://www.openveterinaryjournal.com/?mno=177122 [Access: May 02, 2024]. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2024.v14.i1.22

AMA (American Medical Association) Style

Omar MA, Hassan FA, Shahin SE, El-shahat M. The usage of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for forecasting milk production in Egypt (2022-2025). Open Vet J. 2024; 14((1) (Zagazig Veterinary Conference)): 256-265. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2024.v14.i1.22


Vancouver/ICMJE Style

Omar MA, Hassan FA, Shahin SE, El-shahat M. The usage of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for forecasting milk production in Egypt (2022-2025). Open Vet J. (2024), [cited May 02, 2024]; 14((1) (Zagazig Veterinary Conference)): 256-265. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2024.v14.i1.22


Harvard Style

Omar, M. A., Hassan, . F. A., Shahin, . S. E. & El-shahat, . M. (2024) The usage of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for forecasting milk production in Egypt (2022-2025). Open Vet J, 14 ((1) (Zagazig Veterinary Conference)), 256-265. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2024.v14.i1.22


Turabian Style

Omar, Mohamed A., Fardos A.M. Hassan, Sara. E. Shahin, and Marwa El-shahat. 2024. The usage of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for forecasting milk production in Egypt (2022-2025). Open Veterinary Journal, 14 ((1) (Zagazig Veterinary Conference)), 256-265. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2024.v14.i1.22


Chicago Style

Omar, Mohamed A., Fardos A.M. Hassan, Sara. E. Shahin, and Marwa El-shahat. "The usage of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for forecasting milk production in Egypt (2022-2025)." Open Veterinary Journal 14 (2024), 256-265. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2024.v14.i1.22


MLA (The Modern Language Association) Style

Omar, Mohamed A., Fardos A.M. Hassan, Sara. E. Shahin, and Marwa El-shahat. "The usage of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for forecasting milk production in Egypt (2022-2025)." Open Veterinary Journal 14.(1) (Zagazig Veterinary Conference) (2024), 256-265. Print. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2024.v14.i1.22


APA (American Psychological Association) Style

Omar, M. A., Hassan, . F. A., Shahin, . S. E. & El-shahat, . M. (2024) The usage of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for forecasting milk production in Egypt (2022-2025). Open Veterinary Journal, 14 ((1) (Zagazig Veterinary Conference)), 256-265. doi:10.5455/OVJ.2024.v14.i1.22


Author LoginReviewer LoginAbout PublisherPublication Ethics and Publication Malpractice StatementConflict of Interest PolicyPlagiarism PolicyTerms of UseLicense Information

About Open Veterinary Journal

Open Veterinary Journal provides a fast track coupled with high quality peer review process for original research articles, review articles, short communi ... Read more.



For best results, please use Internet Explorer or Google Chrome.

Contact Information

All correspondence should be addressed to:

Prof. Ibrahim Eldaghayes: Owner, Founder and Editor-in-Chief

Open Veterinary Journal, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Tripoli

P.O. Box 13662, Tripoli, Libya


Email: ibrahim.eldaghayes@vetmed.edu.ly